VfB Stuttgart vs Atlético Madrid result: 1-1 as Atlético Madrid were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Atlético Madrid. We tipped Atlético Madrid at 50% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Champions League sees VfB Stuttgart face Atlético Madrid at MHPArena. The model makes Atlético Madrid the favourite, assigning a slight 50% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is VfB Stuttgart 17.3%, draw 32.7%, Atlético Madrid 50%.
VfB Stuttgart have generated 2.98 goals per game (1.57x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.51 conceded per game. Atlético Madrid average 1.85 scored (0.98x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.34 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.4 for VfB Stuttgart and 0.5 for Atlético Madrid.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 36.4%).
Verdict: Atlético Madrid to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Champions League Power Rankings before MD3: Who's No. 1? — It's time for the UEFA Champions League! It has been about six weeks since our last check-in, but our panel of experts and voters will rank the top 10 teams in the field. Where does your club rank? (ESPN, 2026-10-19)
- Atlético Madrid's Simeone on Man United: 'They are still creating danger' — Atlético Madrid coach Diego Simeone has insisted that Manchester United are still a dangerous opponent despite a run of form which has left the club mid-table in the Premier League. (ESPN, 2026-10-12)