Bodo/Glimt vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: Borussia Dortmund to win 1-3 as model gives 52.1% chance
Champions League sees Bodo/Glimt face Borussia Dortmund at Aspmyra Stadion. The model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite, assigning a slight 52.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Bodo/Glimt 21.2%, draw 26.7%, Borussia Dortmund 52.1%.
Bodo/Glimt have generated 1.34 goals per game (0.75x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.73 conceded per game. Borussia Dortmund average 2.19 scored (1.22x average) and are a steady defence at 1.97 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Bodo/Glimt and 3 for Borussia Dortmund.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 84.3%), and both teams are likely to score (77.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-3, with 1-3, 1-2, 2-3 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Borussia Dortmund to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 52.1% confidence. A 1-3 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.