Napoli vs Bodo/Glimt result: 4-3 as Napoli were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Napoli 4-3 Bodo/Glimt. We tipped Napoli at 68.3% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Champions League sees Napoli face Bodo/Glimt at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. The model makes Napoli the favourite, assigning a clear 68.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Napoli 68.3%, draw 17.2%, Bodo/Glimt 14.5%.
Napoli have generated 0.77 goals per game (0.41x the league average) and are a steady defence at 2.02 conceded per game. Bodo/Glimt average 1.25 scored (0.66x average) and are a steady defence at 2.00 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Napoli and 1.2 for Bodo/Glimt.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 64.6%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 43.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Napoli to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 68.3% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.