AS Roma vs Real Madrid prediction: Real Madrid to win 0-1 as model gives 58.4% chance
Champions League sees AS Roma face Real Madrid at Olimpico. The model makes Real Madrid the favourite, assigning a slight 58.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is AS Roma 14.9%, draw 26.7%, Real Madrid 58.4%.
AS Roma have generated 1.00 goals per game (0.59x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Real Madrid average 2.22 scored (1.24x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.46 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for AS Roma and 1.2 for Real Madrid.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 63.6%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44.6%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Real Madrid to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 58.4% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Vinícius Júnior sent off for hair pull after having goal denied in Real Madrid win — Vinícius Júnior had a goal disallowed and was then red carded in a dramatic, off-the-bench cameo during Real Madrid's LaLiga game with Villarreal on Saturday. (ESPN, 2026-10-10)
- Vinícius Júnior benched as Real Madrid take on Villarreal — Vinícius Júnior was left out of Real Madrid's starting eleven by José Mourinho on Saturday, after the coach admitted that the star forward had failed to find his best form so far this season ahead of their game with Villarreal. (ESPN, 2026-10-10)