AGF vs Egnatia result: 1-1 as Egnatia were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: AGF 1-1 Egnatia. We tipped Egnatia at 43.4% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Conference League sees AGF face Egnatia at Cepheus Park Randers. The model makes Egnatia the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is AGF 29.4%, draw 27.2%, Egnatia 43.4%.
AGF have generated 0.00 goals per game (0.30x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Egnatia average 1.00 scored (0.74x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.3 for AGF and 0.7 for Egnatia.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 91.8%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 15.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-0, 0-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Egnatia to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.4% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.