FC Thun vs Hajduk Split result: 0-1 as Hajduk Split were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: FC Thun 0-1 Hajduk Split. We tipped Hajduk Split at 50.9% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Conference League sees FC Thun face Hajduk Split at Stockhorn Arena. The model makes Hajduk Split the favourite, assigning a slight 50.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is FC Thun 24.1%, draw 25%, Hajduk Split 50.9%.
FC Thun have generated 0.00 goals per game (0.30x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Hajduk Split average 2.00 scored (1.48x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.3 for FC Thun and 1.3 for Hajduk Split.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 76.6%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 22.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 0-1, 0-0, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Hajduk Split to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50.9% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.