AS Monaco vs SC Freiburg result: 3-0 as AS Monaco were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: AS Monaco 3-0 SC Freiburg. We tipped AS Monaco at 40.6% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Conference League sees AS Monaco face SC Freiburg at Stade Louis II. The model makes AS Monaco the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is AS Monaco 40.6%, draw 29%, SC Freiburg 30.4%.
AS Monaco have generated 2.00 goals per game (1.48x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. SC Freiburg average 3.00 scored (2.21x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.00 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 3.2 for AS Monaco and 2 for SC Freiburg.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 89%), and both teams are likely to score (83.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 3-1, with 3-1, 3-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: AS Monaco to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.6% confidence. A 3-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.