Ajax Amsterdam vs Atalanta result: 2-0 as Ajax Amsterdam were tipped
Prediction correct. Final score: Ajax Amsterdam 2-0 Atalanta. We tipped Ajax Amsterdam at 57.6% before kick-off, so the prediction was correct.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Conference League sees Ajax Amsterdam face Atalanta at Johan Cruijff Arena. The model makes Ajax Amsterdam the favourite, assigning a slight 57.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Ajax Amsterdam 57.6%, draw 18.7%, Atalanta 23.7%.
Ajax Amsterdam have generated 1.00 goals per game (0.74x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.00 conceded per game. Atalanta average 3.00 scored (2.21x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Ajax Amsterdam and 3.2 for Atalanta.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 76.5%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (54.6%).
Verdict: Ajax Amsterdam to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 57.6% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.