Pafos vs Riga FC result: 1-1 as Pafos were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Pafos 1-1 Riga FC. We tipped Pafos at 58.1% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Conference League sees Pafos face Riga FC at Alphamega Stadium. The model makes Pafos the favourite, assigning a slight 58.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Pafos 58.1%, draw 20.3%, Riga FC 21.6%.
Pafos have generated 1.00 goals per game (0.74x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 3.00 conceded per game. Riga FC average 1.00 scored (0.74x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Pafos and 2 for Riga FC.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.1%).
Verdict: Pafos to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 58.1% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.