FC Nordsjælland vs CSKA Sofia result: 2-2 as FC Nordsjælland were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: FC Nordsjælland 2-2 CSKA Sofia. We tipped FC Nordsjælland at 76.9% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Conference League sees FC Nordsjælland face CSKA Sofia at Right to Dream Park. The model makes FC Nordsjælland the favourite, assigning a strong 76.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is FC Nordsjælland 76.9%, draw 15.1%, CSKA Sofia 8%.
FC Nordsjælland have generated 1.00 goals per game (0.74x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.00 conceded per game. CSKA Sofia average 1.00 scored (0.74x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.00 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for FC Nordsjælland and 0.7 for CSKA Sofia.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 58.7%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 40.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-0, 2-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: FC Nordsjælland to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 76.9% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.