SC Freiburg vs Jablonec prediction: SC Freiburg to win 1-0 as model gives 61% chance
Conference League sees SC Freiburg face Jablonec at Europa-Park Stadion. The model makes SC Freiburg the favourite, assigning a clear 61% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is SC Freiburg 61%, draw 23.1%, Jablonec 15.9%.
SC Freiburg have generated 1.19 goals per game (1.00x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.19 conceded per game. Jablonec average 1.19 scored (1.00x average) and are a steady defence at 1.19 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.4 for SC Freiburg and 1.2 for Jablonec.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (53.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 0-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: SC Freiburg to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 61% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Derek McInnes left 'mortified' after Rangers knocked out of Conference League on penalties — Rangers were left reeling as they crashed out of the UEFA Conference League play-offs with a 4-3 penalty shoot-out defeat to Jablonec in the Stadion Strelnice. (ESPN, 2026-08-27)