Bundesliga preview: five strong favourites line up

Bayern Munich top a group of clear favourites as the model identifies five sides at 65 per cent or better across nine fixtures.

Bayern Munich stand out among five strong favourites this weekend while four other matches sit closer to even. The model flags Bayern, Dortmund, Stuttgart, Leipzig and Freiburg as the sides most likely to take the points, with the remaining four games projected as marginal or near coin-flip affairs.

Bayern expected to overpower Augsburg

FC Augsburg4.1%2-2Bayern Munich80%Bayern to win · 80%

Bayern enter with four wins and a draw from their last five matches. Their 239-point Elo edge over Augsburg supports the 84.3 per cent win probability and the 3.0 expected goals they post against the visitors' 1.1. The projection favours a 1-3 scoreline and an over-2.5 goals outcome at 78.5 per cent.

Augsburg arrive with two wins, one draw and two losses in their last five, the most recent a defeat. That recent inconsistency aligns with their low 3 per cent chance of an away win. Both teams to score carries a 65.1 per cent likelihood, yet the overall numbers point to Bayern controlling the game from the outset.

Dortmund and Stuttgart set to deliver

Dortmund sit at 76.9 per cent to beat Bremen after five straight wins. The model gives them a 2-0 most likely score and a 60 per cent chance of over 2.5 goals. Bremen have two wins, one draw and two losses in their last five, leaving them with limited scope to upset the projection.

Stuttgart are at 68.9 per cent against Paderborn. Their most likely score is 0-1 and the under 2.5 goals line sits at 61.4 per cent. Paderborn have one win, one draw and two losses in their last four, a record that leaves them vulnerable to Stuttgart's organised approach.

Leipzig and Freiburg hold clear edges

Leipzig hold a 67.4 per cent chance against Frankfurt after two wins and three losses in their last five. The model selects 2-1 as the most probable score and over 2.5 goals at 76.2 per cent. Frankfurt's one win, three draws and one loss in their last five offers little to contradict the numbers.

Freiburg are at 66.9 per cent to win at home to Schalke. Their most likely score is 1-0 and under 2.5 goals is favoured at 73 per cent. Freiburg have four wins and a draw in their last five while Schalke have one win, two draws and one loss in their last four.

The open contests

Union Berlin sit at 49.2 per cent against Elversberg with over 2.5 goals at 75.4 per cent. Leverkusen are at 42 per cent versus Mainz. Hoffenheim hold 58.8 per cent against Hamburg. Cologne are at 51.5 per cent against Gladbach.

Remaining fixtures

Borussia Dortmund v Werder Bremen, Dortmund, 76.9% 1. FC Union Berlin v Elversberg, Union Berlin, 49.2% Bayer Leverkusen v Mainz, Leverkusen, 42% VfB Stuttgart v Paderborn, Stuttgart, 68.9% TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburg, Hoffenheim, 58.8% RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt, Leipzig, 67.4% FC Cologne v Borussia Mönchengladbach, Cologne, 51.5% SC Freiburg v Schalke, Freiburg, 66.9%