Bundesliga predictions: every match from 16 October to 17 October 2026

6 Bundesliga fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 5 games the model calls close.

Six Bundesliga matches run from Friday 16 October to Saturday 17 October. The model flags only one as carrying a clear favourite above 65 per cent while rating the remaining five as open affairs with no side above 60 per cent. Dortmund stand alone in that stronger category.

Dortmund hold the edge at home

1. FC Union Berlin10.9%vBorussia Dortmund68.7%Dortmund to win · 68.7%

Borussia Dortmund enter the weekend with four wins and a draw from their last five league outings. Union Berlin sit one win one draw and three losses across the same span. The projection gives Dortmund a 68.7 per cent chance of victory against 10.9 per cent for the visitors and 20.4 per cent for a draw. Expected goals sit at 2.6 for the home side and 0.8 for Union Berlin. The most probable exact score is 0-2 and the line on over 2.5 goals reaches 64.5 per cent. Both teams to score sits at 50.1 per cent. Bookmakers price Dortmund at roughly 62.3 per cent so the model sits 6.4 points higher. An Elo edge of 209 points in Dortmund's favour including home advantage underpins the gap.

Dortmund's recent form and the large rating difference point to control rather than a scramble. Union Berlin have won only once in five and that single victory came against weaker opposition than they meet here. The projection therefore leans on Dortmund maintaining their recent sequence while the visitors struggle to create enough to close the gap.

Frankfurt and Cologne line up evenly

Eintracht Frankfurt hold a 52.7 per cent chance of beating Cologne. Their last five results read one win two draws and two losses with the latest a defeat. Cologne record two wins one draw and two losses with a win in their most recent outing. The most likely score is 2-1 and over 2.5 goals reaches 75.8 per cent. The narrow margin leaves the match close to a coin flip on the numbers.

Stuttgart carry a slight edge

VfB Stuttgart are given 55.3 per cent to win away at Hamburg. Stuttgart's last five show three wins and two losses while Hamburg record two wins and three losses. The most probable scoreline is 1-2 and over 2.5 goals stands at 66.6 per cent. Hamburg's recent results include a win yet the model still places Stuttgart ahead on current ratings.

The remaining three fixtures

Mainz sit at 40.6 per cent to beat Schalke with a most likely score of 0-1 and only 35.1 per cent on over 2.5 goals. Elversberg hold 39.4 per cent against Augsburg with 2-1 the top scoreline and over 2.5 goals at 59.1 per cent. Werder Bremen reach 59.4 per cent to win at home to Paderborn with the most likely outcome 1-0 and over 2.5 goals at just 29.7 per cent.

Full set of remaining matches

Mainz v Schalke, Mainz, 40.6% SV Elversberg v Augsburg, Elversberg, 39.4% Werder Bremen v Paderborn, Bremen, 59.4% Eintracht Frankfurt v Cologne, Frankfurt, 52.7% VfB Stuttgart v Hamburg, Stuttgart, 55.3%