1. FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund prediction: Borussia Dortmund to win 0-2 as model gives 68.7% chance
Bundesliga sees 1. FC Union Berlin face Borussia Dortmund at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. The model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite, assigning a clear 68.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is 1. FC Union Berlin 10.9%, draw 20.4%, Borussia Dortmund 68.7%.
1. FC Union Berlin have generated 1.21 goals per game (0.70x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.32 conceded per game. Borussia Dortmund average 2.13 scored (1.23x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.97 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for 1. FC Union Berlin and 2.6 for Borussia Dortmund.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 64.5%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 0-2, 0-3, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Borussia Dortmund to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 68.7% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- UEFA member nations call FIFA's international break a 'disaster' — European soccer federations told UEFA they are not happy with the new extended four-game blocks of international matches that finished this week. (ESPN, 2026-10-09)
- The world's most weird and wonderful soccer kits of 2026-27 — Some soccer kits are just too remarkable to not be seen. Here are some of the season's wildest ones from around the world that demand to be shared. (ESPN, 2026-10-05)
- Is Sullivan the next Olise? Comparisons for USMNT's top young stars — With the USMNT welcoming a new class of debutantes during this international break, ESPN dives into the numbers of the United States' next prodigies. (ESPN, 2026-09-24)
- Transfer rumors, news: Man United want Guirassy as potential Zirkzee replacement — Manchester United are keeping tabs on Borussia Dortmund's Serhou Guirassy. Transfer Talk has the latest. (ESPN, 2026-09-22)
- Borussia Dortmund teenager Konstantinos Karetsas returns to training after Champions League health scare — Borussia Dortmund says 18-year-old midfielder Konstantinos Karetsas is back in training just over a week after he slumped to the ground in an alarming medical incident on his Champions League debut. (ESPN, 2026-09-16)
- Bayern Munich top Borussia Dortmund to win German Supercup — Bayern Munich laid down a marker for the new season as they beat Klassiker rivals Borussia Dortmund 2-1 to win the German Supercup at Signal Iduna Park. (ESPN, 2026-08-23)