Championship preview: West Ham stand out among tight games

One side sits clear of the pack this round while most matches offer little separation on the numbers.

The Championship round from 9 to 11 October contains just one standout projection above 65 per cent while the remaining eleven fixtures sit inside a narrow band.

West Ham set the tone

West Ham United enter their Friday match against QPR with a 67.1 per cent chance of victory according to the projection. Expected goals point to a 3-1 outcome and an 78.3 per cent likelihood of over 2.5 goals. West Ham arrive with four wins and one draw from their last five games.

QPR have taken one win, three draws and one loss across the same span. Reports note manager Julien Stephan urging his players to show ambition or stay at home, while injury updates cover Richard Kone and Justin Obikwu as available and Rumarn Burrell still sidelined.

Swansea hold narrow edge at home

Swansea City33.4%2-1Norwich City36.5%Norwich City to win · 36.5%

Swansea City host Norwich City with a 35.8 per cent chance of victory, ahead of the visitors on 34.3 per cent and the draw on 29.9 per cent. Expected goals sit at 1.9 to 1.2, Over 2.5 goals registers 60.4 per cent and both teams to score reaches 61.3 per cent. Swansea have three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five matches; Norwich have two wins and three losses.

Elo ratings give Swansea a 102-point advantage once home ground is included. The projection sits five points below the market price on Swansea.

Southampton look strongest on the road

Southampton travel to Portsmouth with a 62.7 per cent chance of victory and a most likely score of 2-0. Over 2.5 goals is projected at 65.3 per cent. Southampton have two wins, two draws and one loss in their last five; Portsmouth have one win, two draws and two losses.

Other projected edges

West Bromwich Albion hold 39.8 per cent at home to Birmingham. Cardiff City sit at 44.5 per cent against Blackburn. Stoke City carry 43.9 per cent at Bolton. Wrexham are at 44.1 per cent away to Derby. Middlesbrough hold 40.5 per cent against Wolves. Millwall sit at 45.2 per cent at Preston. Sheffield United carry 46.3 per cent at home to Lincoln City. Burnley are at 48 per cent at Watford. Bristol City hold 49.7 per cent at Charlton.

Remaining fixtures

West Ham United v QPR, West Ham United, 67.1% Charlton Athletic v Bristol City, Bristol City, 49.7% West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City, West Bromwich Albion, 39.8% Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City, Cardiff City, 44.5% Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City, Stoke City, 43.9% Derby County v Wrexham, Wrexham, 44.1% Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers, Middlesbrough, 40.5% Preston North End v Millwall, Millwall, 45.2% Sheffield United v Lincoln City, Sheffield United, 46.3% Watford v Burnley, Burnley, 48% Southampton v Portsmouth, Southampton, 62.7%