Championship predictions: every match from 16 October to 17 October 2026
12 Championship fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 0 clear favourites, 12 games the model calls close.
12 Championship matches are scheduled between Friday, 16 October 2026 and Saturday, 17 October 2026. The model makes 0 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Birmingham City against Queens Park Rangers, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.
Headline fixture
Birmingham City48%v
Queens Park Rangers25.3%Birmingham to win · 48%Birmingham City are a marginal favourite at 48% (draw 26.6%, Queens Park Rangers 25.3%). Expected goals come out at 1.5 for Birmingham City and 1 for Queens Park Rangers, with 1-0 the most likely exact score. The total sits close to the 2.5 line, and both teams to score is a coin flip at 52.2%. On Elo ratings Birmingham City are the clearly stronger side (107 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Birmingham City LWWWD, Queens Park Rangers WLWDD (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "West Ham stunned by referee's 'massive mistake' in QPR draw".
Every fixture
Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers, Friday, 16 October 2026 19:00 UTC
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win at 46.3%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 74.5%. Form: Burnley LLDWD, Wolves WDWLL. Full preview
Middlesbrough v Cardiff City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC
Middlesbrough to win at 59%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 65.8%. Form: Boro WDWWD, Cardiff WDWLW. Full preview
Millwall v Lincoln City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC
Millwall to win at 51.2%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 50.2%. Form: Millwall LDLWD, Lincoln City WDLLL. Full preview
Watford v Charlton Athletic, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC
Charlton Athletic to win at 37.6%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 35.5%. Form: Watford LWLLL, Charlton LLDDL. Full preview
Birmingham City v Queens Park Rangers, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
Birmingham City to win at 48%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 47.7%. Form: Birmingham LWWWD, QPR WLWDD. Full preview
Bristol City v Sheffield United, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
Bristol City to win at 44.4%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 50.4%. Form: Bristol City DLLDW, Sheffield Utd DWLWL. Full preview
Derby County v Stoke City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
Stoke City to win at 43.4%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 54.6%. Form: Derby DLLDD, Stoke DWLWW. Full preview
Norwich City v Portsmouth, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
Norwich City to win at 53.1%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 59.9%. Form: Norwich City WLLLL, Portsmouth WDWWL. Full preview
Southampton v Bolton Wanderers, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
Southampton to win at 58.9%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 75.2%. Form: Southampton WDWWL, Bolton LDWLW. Full preview
Swansea City v West Ham United, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
West Ham United to win at 47.2%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 65%. Form: Swansea LLWWW, West Ham LWWDD. Full preview
West Bromwich Albion v Blackburn Rovers, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
West Bromwich Albion to win at 48.6%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 30.7%. Form: West Brom DWWLL, Blackburn WLWWD. Full preview
Wrexham v Preston North End, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC
Wrexham to win at 53%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 53.7%. Form: Wrexham LWLDW, Preston DLLLD. Full preview
A note on the numbers
Championship probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.