Eredivisie predictions: every match from 16 October to 17 October 2026

4 Eredivisie fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 3 clear favourites, 1 games the model calls close.

Three sides enter the weekend with clear edges according to the probabilities, while the fourth contest sits closer to a coin flip. The projection gives the top three home teams combined win chances above 65 per cent each, backed by recent form lines and expected goal splits that favour the stronger attack in each case.

PSV expected to dominate at home

ADO Den Haag3%vPSV Eindhoven82.4%PSV to win · 82.4%

PSV Eindhoven hold an 82.4 per cent chance of beating ADO Den Haag. The projection sees them scoring 3.2 expected goals against 1.0 for the visitors, producing a most likely 0-3 scoreline. Over 2.5 goals sits at 78.8 per cent and both teams to score at 60.9 per cent, reflecting the gap in Elo ratings that stands at 255 points once home advantage is included.

PSV arrive with three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five, the latest a victory. ADO Den Haag have zero wins, three draws and two losses across the same span, their most recent result a draw. Those sequences leave the home side in stronger recent shape and align with the high probability attached to a comfortable margin.

Feyenoord carry strong recent record into fixture

Feyenoord Rotterdam sit at 80.5 per cent to defeat Telstar. The most likely score is 0-2 and over 2.5 goals registers at 60.1 per cent. Telstar have posted zero wins, three draws and two losses in the last five matches, ending with a draw. Feyenoord have four wins and one loss in their last five, finishing with a win.

The form edge sits clearly with the visitors to Telstar and the projection builds on that by assigning the away side the bulk of the expected goals. A low-scoring win remains the central outcome, though the over 2.5 line still carries decent weight.

Heerenveen hold narrow advantage over Excelsior

Heerenveen are at 67.3 per cent to beat Excelsior, the clearest of the three strong favourites yet still below the 70 per cent threshold that marks a strong favourite. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 and over 2.5 goals comes in at 59 per cent. Both sides share identical last-five records of one win, two draws and two losses, each ending with a defeat.

The probabilities therefore rest more on home advantage and underlying ratings than on any sharp difference in recent results. A narrow margin looks the probable route, with the slight lean toward a higher goal tally than in the Feyenoord game.

Remaining fixture

Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II, Sparta win, 63.9% Heerenveen v Excelsior, Heerenveen win, 67.3% Feyenoord Rotterdam v Telstar, Feyenoord win, 80.5%