Europa League predictions for 15 October 2026: every match previewed

18 Europa League fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 8 clear favourites, 10 games the model calls close.

Eight Europa League fixtures fall on the same midweek date, with the probabilities spread between four clear edges above 65 per cent and four contests that sit much closer. The projection gives AZ Alkmaar the clearest path while marking the Lyon versus Crystal Palace meeting as the most balanced of the set.

Lyon face Palace in the tightest call

Lyon50.5%vCrystal Palace27.4%Lyon to win · 50.5%

Lyon enter as marginal favourites at 50.5 per cent, only a shade ahead of a draw at 22.1 per cent and a Palace win at 27.4 per cent. The model’s expected goals split of 0.6 to 2.3 in Palace’s favour suggests the visitors carry the bigger threat despite the home edge. Over 2.5 goals sits at 57.1 per cent while both teams to score is projected at just 43.5 per cent, pointing to games that may be settled by a single moment rather than open exchanges.

Form offers little separation. Lyon’s last five read three wins, one draw and one loss with the most recent a defeat, while Palace sit on two wins, one draw and two losses after their latest draw. On Elo ratings Lyon hold a 143-point advantage once home advantage is added, which explains why the model edges them ahead of the market price of 46.5 per cent.

AZ Alkmaar set for control at home

AZ Alkmaar sit at 85.6 per cent to beat Hapoel Be’er Sheva, the strongest single probability in the round. The projection points to a 1-0 most likely scoreline and gives Over 2.5 goals only a 1.2 per cent chance. AZ’s recent results show two wins, one draw and two losses after a defeat, yet the numbers still place them well clear of an opponent without comparable recent data.

Leverkusen expected to dominate away

Bayer Leverkusen are 79.4 per cent favourites against Lech Poznan. The model’s most likely scoreline is 0-3 and Over 2.5 goals is set at 65.8 per cent. Leverkusen’s last five stand at four wins, one draw and no losses after their latest win, underlining the consistency the projection rewards.

Four remaining fixtures sit nearer to even

The other four ties lack the same separation. NK Celje are marginal favourites at 43 per cent against Omonia, with Over 2.5 goals at just 19.3 per cent. AC Milan hold a slight 58.8 per cent edge over RB Salzburg, whose last five read three wins, two draws and no losses. Sparta Prague are strong favourites at 77.8 per cent against Lillestrom, with Over 2.5 goals at 73.8 per cent. Sunderland sit at 74 per cent to win at Torreense, though Over 2.5 goals is only 14.8 per cent. Union SG versus Real Sociedad leans to the draw at 36.4 per cent, with Over 2.5 goals at 67.1 per cent.

Remaining fixtures

AZ Alkmaar v Hapoel Be'er Sheva, AZ Alkmaar 85.6% Bayer Leverkusen v Lech Poznan, Bayer Leverkusen 79.4% NK Celje v Omonia, NK Celje 43% RB Salzburg v AC Milan, AC Milan 58.8% Sparta Prague v Lillestrom, Sparta Prague 77.8% Torreense v Sunderland, Sunderland 74% Union SG v Real Sociedad, draw 36.4%