Lyon vs Crystal Palace prediction: Lyon narrow favourites at 50.5%
Europa League sees Lyon face Crystal Palace at Groupama Stadium. The model makes Lyon the favourite, assigning a slight 50.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Lyon 50.5%, draw 22.1%, Crystal Palace 27.4%.
Lyon have generated 1.90 goals per game (1.39x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.04 conceded per game. Crystal Palace average 4.00 scored (2.50x average) and are yet to concede. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.6 for Lyon and 2.3 for Crystal Palace.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 57.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 43.5%).
Verdict: Lyon to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 50.5% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.