Liga MX predictions: every match from 17 October to 18 October 2026

7 Liga MX fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 6 games the model calls close.

Four Liga MX matches kick off on 17 October, each carrying similar probabilities that leave the outcome in doubt. The projection gives every home side a narrow edge at best, and the expected goals and recent results point to low-margin affairs rather than one-sided contests.

Atlante host Pumas UNAM

Atlante43%vPumas UNAM31.6%Atlante to win · 43%

Atlante sit at 43 per cent to take the points, a figure the probabilities place just above a coin flip. Pumas UNAM trail at 31.6 per cent while the draw sits at 25.4 per cent. Expected goals of 1.3 for the hosts and 1.6 for the visitors align with a 2-1 most likely scoreline, and both teams to score registers at 58.7 per cent.

Atlante enter with one win, two draws and two losses from their last five, the latest a defeat. Pumas UNAM match that record exactly and arrive after a draw. The total goals line hovers near 2.5, consistent with the modest expected output.

Necaxa meet Atlas

Necaxa hold 40.7 per cent to win, again inside the marginal-favourite band. The most probable score is 2-1 and over 2.5 goals reaches 60.4 per cent. Both sides share identical recent sequences of zero wins, two draws and three losses, each coming off a draw.

The elevated over-2.5 probability stands out against the tighter scoreline expectation, suggesting the model sees room for an extra goal or two despite the even records.

Tijuana face Puebla

Tijuana reach 53.8 per cent at home, the only slight favourite in the set. A 1-0 win is the most common projected outcome and over 2.5 goals drops to 42.4 per cent. Both teams post the same five-game line of one win, two draws and two losses, each after a draw.

The lower over probability and lean toward a clean sheet reflect the tighter expected margins in this pairing compared with the other three fixtures.

Santos visit Queretaro

Santos sit at 44.7 per cent, another marginal call, with over 2.5 goals at just 38 per cent. Santos have four wins and one loss in their last five after a victory, while Queretaro have four wins, one draw and no losses after their own win. The low over figure suggests the numbers expect a controlled, lower-scoring encounter.

Remaining fixture Santos v Queretaro, Santos 44.7%