Mavericks v Rockets headlines 9 October: 20 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

20 games across 15 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

Twenty matches unfold across MLB, NBA, cricket tours and domestic leagues on Friday. The Dallas Mavericks against the Houston Rockets stands out as the main event in the NBA at Venetian Arena.

NBA China game opens the card

Dallas Mavericks51%117-135Houston Rockets49%Mavericks to win · 51%

The Mavericks enter at 51% against the Rockets at 49%. Both sides start the season at 0-0 and sit 17th and 18th in the standings. Our numbers treat the contest as close to a coin flip. The projection gives Dallas a slight tilt yet leaves room for either outcome given the narrow margin.

Dortmund seek seventh straight win

Borussia Dortmund66.8%2-2Werder Bremen11%Dortmund to win · 66.8%

Borussia Dortmund host Werder Bremen at 18:30 UTC. Dortmund lead the Bundesliga with 12 points after six wins in a row. Bremen sit eighth on seven points. The model assigns Dortmund 66.8% and labels them a clear favourite. Expected goals sit at 2.5 for Dortmund and 0.6 for Bremen, supporting an over 2.5 lean at 60%.

Dortmund's run places pressure on Bremen to break the sequence. The gap in current form and league position widens the probability difference. A win would extend the streak while a draw or loss would end it immediately.

Yankees aim to avoid series exit

New York Yankees53.5%vTampa Bay Rays46.5%Yankees to win · 53.5%

New York Yankees face Tampa Bay Rays in ALDS Game 4 at 00:00 UTC. Tampa Bay lead the series 2-0. The Yankees have lost three in a row while the Rays have won three. The projection gives the Yankees 53.5% and marks them a slight favourite. Tampa Bay receive 46.5%.

The recent losing run for New York does not shift the model below 50%. The home side still holds the edge despite the streak. A loss would end the Yankees' season while a win forces a fifth game.

Value appears in three league fixtures

Three matches show the largest gaps between model and market. Moreirense against Gil Vicente offers Gil Vicente at 46.6% against a market price of 40.7% for a +5.9 edge. Instituto Córdoba against Boca Juniors gives Boca 41.8% against 36.1% for a +5.7 edge. Málaga against Espanyol lists Espanyol at 42.3% against 36.7% for a +5.6 edge. Each sits close to a coin flip yet carries the biggest mispricing of the day.

Further leans across goals and both teams to score

PSV Eindhoven against Heerenveen carries a strong favourite tag at 70.1% with an over 2.5 lean at 78.8% and both teams to score at 66.9%. West Ham United against Queens Park Rangers sits at 69% with an over 2.5 lean at 78.3%. Málaga against Espanyol shows an under 2.5 lean at 73.4%. Moreirense against Gil Vicente carries an under 2.5 lean at 60.8%.

Remaining fixtures in kick-off order

00:00 UTC New York Yankees v Tampa Bay Rays: Yankees 53.5% 13:00 UTC Pakistan v Sri Lanka: PAK 79.2% 13:30 UTC India v West Indies: IND 79.4% 15:00 UTC Namibia v United Arab Emirates: NAM 59.9% 17:30 UTC Aldosivi v Sarmiento (Junín): Sarmiento (J) 36.7% 17:45 UTC Moreirense v Gil Vicente: Gil Vicente 46.6% 18:00 UTC PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen: PSV 70.1% 18:45 UTC Lens v Lyon: Lyon 37% 19:00 UTC Málaga v Espanyol: Espanyol 42.3% 19:00 UTC West Ham United v Queens Park Rangers: West Ham 69% 19:15 UTC Braga v Sporting CP: Sporting 45.2% 21:00 UTC Gimnasia La Plata v Atlético Tucumán: Gimnasia LP 47% 22:30 UTC Instituto (Córdoba) v Boca Juniors: Boca 41.8% 23:00 UTC Louisville Cardinals v Florida State Seminoles: Louisville 55.5% 23:00 UTC Detroit Red Wings v Seattle Kraken: Red Wings 51.4% 23:00 UTC Washington Capitals v New York Rangers: Capitals 51.3% 23:00 UTC Columbus Blue Jackets v Pittsburgh Penguins: Blue Jackets 51.3% 23:30 UTC New York Liberty v Atlanta Dream: Liberty 56.2%