Aston Villa v Brentford headlines 10 October: 169 predictions, the stakes and where the value is

169 games across 33 competitions. The headline match, the playoff and table stakes, the favourites that look shaky, and where the model prices differ from the bookmakers.

The Premier League returns after the international break with Arsenal hosting Leeds United at the Emirates Stadium. Our numbers rate Arsenal clear favourites on the back of their strong home record and superior squad depth.

Arsenal host Leeds United

Arsenal68.9%2-1Leeds United11.4%Arsenal to win · 68.9%

Arsenal sit second in the table with 12 points from their opening games. Leeds occupy fifth place with nine points. The projection gives Arsenal a 68.9 per cent chance of victory, a draw 19.7 per cent and a Leeds win 11.4 per cent. Expected goals stand at 1.5 for the hosts and 0.7 for the visitors, which points to a 1-0 scoreline as the most probable outcome. Under 2.5 goals carries a 63.4 per cent probability while both teams to score sits at just 39.4 per cent.

Arsenal arrive with four wins and one loss in their last five matches though their most recent result was a defeat. Leeds have two wins and three draws from their last five and remain unbeaten in that sequence. The sides have met twice recently with Arsenal winning both encounters at an average of 4.5 goals per game. The 244-point Elo edge for Arsenal including home advantage underlines their superiority on paper.

Bayern visit Augsburg in the Bundesliga

FC Augsburg4.1%2-2Bayern Munich80%Bayern to win · 80%

Bayern Munich travel to Augsburg with three straight wins behind them and sit second in the table. Augsburg lie fifth. The probabilities give Bayern an 80 per cent chance of victory. Expected goals of 1.1 for Augsburg and 3 for Bayern produce a projected 1-3 result. Over 2.5 goals reaches 78.4 per cent in this fixture.

Barcelona meet Getafe in La Liga

Barcelona87.5%3-0Getafe3%Barcelona to win · 87.5%

Barcelona lead the La Liga table with 21 points and extend an eight-match winning run. Getafe sit 12th with eight points. Barcelona carry an 87.5 per cent probability of winning. A 2-0 scoreline emerges as the likeliest outcome from the underlying numbers.

Value bets stand out across several leagues

Six selections show meaningful gaps between model and market. Al Ettifaq at 34.3 per cent against a market of 42.6 per cent offers one such angle. Manchester United at 47.8 per cent trails the market price of 55.8 per cent. Barracas Central versus Huracan produces a 7.5 per cent edge on Huracan at 41.3 per cent. Nantes versus Stade de Reims gives a 7.4 per cent gap on Nantes. Deportivo Pereira versus Deportivo Cali and Ceuta versus CD Sabadell complete the list of discrepancies above seven points.

Over 2.5 goals appears likely in Darmstadt against Energie Cottbus at 82.3 per cent and in Saint-Etienne against Rodez at 81.1 per cent. Both teams to score reaches its highest probability of 79.7 per cent in the Darmstadt fixture. Under 2.5 goals leans heavily in Shrewsbury against Exeter at 89.6 per cent.

Remaining fixtures in kick-off order

Milwaukee Brewers v San Diego Padres, Brewers 56.9%; Los Angeles Dodgers v Atlanta Braves, Dodgers 54.9%; Genclerbirligi v Amed SFK, Amed SFK 56.8%; 1. FC Magdeburg v Hannover 96, Magdeburg 41.4%; SV Darmstadt 98 v Energie Cottbus, Darmstadt 49.1%; VfL Osnabruck v Dynamo Dresden, Osnabruck 40.3%; Zheng Qinwen v Elise Mertens, Q. Zheng 55.6%; Juan Manuel Cerundolo v Carlos Alcaraz, C. Alcaraz 92.6%; Tommy Paul v Adolfo Daniel Vallejo, T. Paul 65.2%; Charlton Athletic v Bristol City, Bristol City 46.7%; Swansea City v Norwich City, Norwich City 36.5%; West Bromwich Albion v Birmingham City, West Brom 36.4%; Notts County v Oxford United, Notts County 48.6%; Plymouth Argyle v AFC Wimbledon, Plymouth 63.2%; Oldham Athletic v Accrington Stanley, Oldham 58.5%; Swindon Town v Crewe Alexandra, Swindon 37.7%; Botic Van De Zandschulp v Alex Michelsen, A. Michelsen 55.9%; Ignacio Buse v Zizou Bergs, I. Buse 52.9%; Rayo Vallecano v Athletic Club, Athletic 41.1%; Clermont Foot v Red Star FC 93, Red Star FC 44%; Nantes v Stade de Reims, Nantes 52.9%; Lucrezia Stefanini v Anna Blinkova, A. Blinkova 54.2%; Sebastian Baez v Valentin Vacherot, V. Vacherot 70.2%; Genoa v Fiorentina, Fiorentina 46.7%; Benevento v Cesena, Benevento 52.3%; Empoli v Palermo, Palermo 57.8%; Sudtirol v Ascoli, Sudtirol 38.9%; Virtus Entella v Juve Stabia, Virtus Entella 53.6%; Alanyaspor v Erzurum BB, Alanyaspor 49.6%; Samsunspor v Trabzonspor, Trabzonspor 54.4%; AIK v IF Brommapojkarna, AIK 42.6%; GAIS v IK Sirius, GAIS 37.1%; 1. FC Union Berlin v SV Elversberg, Union Berlin 42.1%; Mainz v Bayer Leverkusen, Leverkusen 45.7%; SC Paderborn 07 v VfB Stuttgart, Stuttgart 62.3%; TSG Hoffenheim v Hamburg SV, Hoffenheim 65.5%; Al Hazem v Neom SC, Neom SC 67.9%; Aston Villa v Brentford, Brentford 40.3%; Chelsea v AFC Bournemouth, Chelsea 59.5%; Ipswich Town v Fulham, Fulham 42.1%; Sunderland v Brighton & Hove Albion, Brighton 44.4%; Blackburn Rovers v Cardiff City, Cardiff 41.9%; Bolton Wanderers v Stoke City, Stoke 40.9%; Derby County v Wrexham, Wrexham 40.3%; Middlesbrough v Wolverhampton Wanderers, Boro 37.7%; Preston North End v Millwall, Millwall 42.6%; Sheffield United v Lincoln City, Sheffield Utd 42.5%; Watford v Burnley, Burnley 45.6%; Bradford City v Leyton Orient, Bradford 69.3%; Cambridge United v Blackpool, Cambridge 50%; Doncaster Rovers v Burton Albion, Doncaster 64.3%; Huddersfield Town v Sheffield Wednesday, Huddersfield 67.7%; Leicester City v Peterborough United, Leicester 67.3%; Mansfield Town v Bromley, Mansfield 59.4%; Milton Keynes Dons v Reading, Reading 46.6%; Stevenage v Wigan Athletic, Stevenage 45.1%; Stockport County v Barnsley, Stockport 75.3%; Wycombe Wanderers v Luton Town, Luton 44.5%; Bristol Rovers v Barnet, Bristol Rovers 44.3%; Cheltenham Town v Salford City, Salford City 61%; Crawley Town v Chesterfield, Chesterfield 66.1%; Fleetwood Town v Walsall, Fleetwood Town 40.3%; Newport County v Colchester United, Colchester 43.5%; Port Vale v Grimsby Town, Grimsby 47.1%; Rotherham United v Gillingham, Rotherham 50.6%; Shrewsbury Town v Exeter City, Shrewsbury 50.6%; Tranmere Rovers v Rochdale, Tranmere 56.4%; York City v Northampton Town, York City 69.3%; Dundee United v Hibernian, Hibernian 45.1%; Falkirk v Dundee, Falkirk 55.9%; Heart of Midlothian v St Mirren, Hearts 67.7%; Rangers v Kilmarnock, Rangers 90.7%; Cercle Brugge KSV v Anderlecht, Anderlecht 57%; Bodo/Glimt v Kristiansund BK, Bodo/Glimt 90.8%; Alavés v Atlético Madrid, Atlético 56.9%; Ceuta v CD Sabadell, CD Sabadell 49.7%; Go Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam, Go Ahead Eagles 47.7%; Al Ettifaq v Al Khaleej, Al Ettifaq 34.3%; Grazer AK v RB Salzburg, RB Salzburg 67.1%; WSG Swarovski Tirol v SV Josko Ried, Swarovski Tirol 37.1%; Lille v Le Havre AC, Lille 63.8%; Vicenza v Pisa, Pisa 47%; Mjällby AIF v Degerfors IF, Mjällby 54.2%; Internazionale v Parma, Inter Milan 82.6%; Nebraska Cornhuskers v Indiana Hoosiers, Indiana 52.9%; Missouri Tigers v Texas A&M Aggies, Missouri 55.5%; Oklahoma State Cowboys v UCF Knights, Oklahoma St 63.6%; Pittsburgh Panthers v North Carolina Tar Heels, Pitt 63.6%; West Virginia Mountaineers v Arizona Wildcats, West Virginia 55.5%; NC State Wolfpack v Wake Forest Demon Deacons, NC State 55.5%; Army Black Knights v Tulane Green Wave, Tulane 52.9%; Bowling Green Falcons v Sacramento State Hornets, Bowling Green 55.5%; Caykur Rizespor v Fenerbahce, Fenerbahce 63.8%; Rosenborg v Sandefjord, Rosenborg 80.3%; RAAL La Louvière v Club Brugge, Club Brugge 79%; Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur, Man United 47.8%; RB Leipzig v Eintracht Frankfurt, RB Leipzig 57.3%; Northwestern Wildcats v Ball State Cardinals, Northwestern 63.6%; Eldense v Córdoba, Eldense 44%; AEK Athens v OFI Crete, AEK Athens 84.6%; Asteras Tripoli v Atromitos, Asteras Trip 46.1%; Feyenoord Rotterdam v AZ Alkmaar, Feyenoord 47.4%; Florida Gators v South Carolina Gamecocks, Florida 63.6%; Maritimo v FC Porto, FC Porto 75.6%; Toronto FC v CF Montréal, Toronto 43.8%; Boston Bruins v Philadelphia Flyers, Bruins 76.5%; East Carolina Pirates v Rice Owls, East Carolina 55.5%; App State Mountaineers v Old Dominion Monarchs, Old Dominion 87.7%; Arezzo v Cremonese, Cremonese 50.3%; Austria Vienna v SK Sturm Graz, Sturm Graz 52%; Fortuna Sittard v FC Twente, FC Twente 68.5%; Massachusetts Minutemen v Miami (OH) RedHawks, UMass 55.5%; Saint-Étienne v Rodez Aveyron, St. Étienne 81.2%; Al Hilal v Al Ittihad, Al Hilal 82.3%; Cobresal v Universidad de Concepción, Cobresal 46.8%; Chicago Fire FC v New York City FC, Chicago 48.6%; 1. FC Nürnberg v VfL Wolfsburg, 1. FC Nürnberg 36%; Napoli v Frosinone, Napoli 69.6%; AS Monaco v Toulouse, Monaco 56.6%; Brest v Angers, Brest 44.5%; Lorient v Paris FC, Paris FC 47%; Paris Saint-Germain v Le Mans, PSG 89.3%; Barracas Central v Huracán, Huracán 41.3%; Racing Genk v KV Kortrijk, Genk 71.7%; Zulte-Waregem v KAA Gent, KAA Gent 44.1%; Real Madrid v Villarreal, Real Madrid 68.4%; Ajax Amsterdam v NEC Nijmegen, Ajax 72.9%; RC Celta Fortuna v Real Sociedad II, Celta Fortuna 39.7%; Casa Pia v Santa Clara, Santa Clara 57.3%; Académico de Viseu v Estoril, Estoril 34.8%; Oklahoma Sooners v Texas Longhorns, Oklahoma 55.5%; Notre Dame Fighting Irish v Stanford Cardinal, Notre Dame 63.6%; Vanderbilt Commodores v Ole Miss Rebels, Vanderbilt 55.5%; Oregon Ducks v UCLA Bruins, Oregon 55.5%; Kansas State Wildcats v Houston Cougars, Houston 52.9%; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets v Duke Blue Devils, Georgia Tech 55.5%; California Golden Bears v Virginia Tech Hokies, California 63.6%; Michigan State Spartans v Illinois Fighting Illini, Illinois 52.9%; North Texas Mean Green v Charlotte 49ers, North Texas 63.6%; Navy Midshipmen v Tulsa Golden Hurricane, Navy 55.5%; Akron Zips v Eastern Michigan Eagles, Akron 55.5%; Toledo Rockets v Buffalo Bulls, Toledo 55.5%; Ohio Bobcats v Central Michigan Chippewas, Ohio 55.5%; Western Michigan Broncos v Kent State Golden Flashes, W Michigan 55.5%; New Jersey Devils v Vancouver Canucks, Devils 54.4%; Temple Owls v UConn Huskies, Temple 55.5%; Central Córdoba (Santiago del Estero) v Estudiantes de La Plata, Estudiantes 44.4%; San Jose Sharks v Edmonton Oilers, Oilers 52.9%; Ohio State Buckeyes v Maryland Terrapins, Ohio State 63.6%; Arkansas Razorbacks v Tennessee Volunteers, Arkansas 55.5%; Deportivo Pereira v Deportivo Cali, Cali 65.7%; Huachipato v O'Higgins, O'Higgins 48.5%; Vasco da Gama v Remo, Vasco 76.5%; Oregon State Beavers v San Diego State Aztecs, Oregon St 55.5%; Florida Panthers v Minnesota Wild, Panthers 52.6%; Tigre v Banfield, Tigre 55.5%; Toronto Raptors v LA Clippers, Raptors 58.4%; FC Juárez v Tijuana, Tijuana 44%; Querétaro v Atlante, Queretaro 39.3%; Indiana Pacers v Atlanta Hawks, Pacers 50.3%; Washington Wizards v Detroit Pistons, Pistons 53.4%; Kentucky Wildcats v LSU Tigers, Kentucky 55.5%; Memphis Tigers v UAB Blazers, Memphis 55.5%; UTEP Miners v Nevada Wolf Pack, UTEP 55.5%; UNLV Rebels v North Dakota State Bison, UNLV 55.5%; Buffalo Sabres v Utah Mammoth, Sabres 50.2%; Montreal Canadiens v Detroit Red Wings, Canadiens 57.9%; Ottawa Senators v Nashville Predators, Senators 58.6%; Pittsburgh Penguins v Dallas Stars, Penguins 51.6%; Chicago Blackhawks v Carolina Hurricanes, Hurricanes 68.8%; St. Louis Blues v Columbus Blue Jackets, Blue Jackets 53.8%; Colorado Avalanche v Toronto Maple Leafs, Avalanche 66.8%; Atlético Junior v Internacional de Bogotá, Atl. Junior 65.8%; Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati, Cincinnati 37.9%; Charlotte FC v FC Dallas, Charlotte 36.3%; Inter Miami CF v D.C. United, Miami 65%; New England Revolution v Seattle Sounders FC, New England 46.5%; Orlando City SC v Columbus Crew, Orlando 40.2%; Philadelphia Union v Real Salt Lake, Philadelphia 62.4%; Red Bull New York v San Diego FC, San Diego 40.9%; Alabama Crimson Tide v Georgia Bulldogs, Alabama 55.5%; Penn State Nittany Lions v USC Trojans, USC 52.9%; Virginia Cavaliers v Syracuse Orange, Virginia 63.6%; Northern Illinois Huskies v Air Force Falcons, N Illinois 55.5%; New York Islanders v Tampa Bay Lightning, Islanders 51.6%.