Premier League predictions: every match from 17 October to 18 October 2026

9 Premier League fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 1 clear favourites, 8 games the model calls close.

9 Premier League matches are scheduled between Saturday, 17 October 2026 and Sunday, 18 October 2026. The model makes 1 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Newcastle United against Aston Villa, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Newcastle United38.8%vAston Villa33.8%Newcastle to win · 38.8%

Newcastle United are a marginal favourite at 38.8% (draw 27.5%, Aston Villa 33.8%). Expected goals come out at 1.9 for Newcastle United and 1.6 for Aston Villa, with 2-1 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (67%), and both teams to score is likely at 68.3%. Form: Newcastle United LWLLW, Aston Villa LDWWW (most recent first). Team news worth a look before kick-off: "Aston Villa 1-1 Fulham: Fulham earn draw after Zion Suzuki error - as it happened".

Every fixture

Everton v Chelsea, Saturday, 17 October 2026 11:30 UTC

Chelsea to win at 47.8%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 62.3%. Form: Everton WLLDW, Chelsea WLWWL. Full preview

Brentford v Liverpool, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Liverpool to win at 36.7%, Over 2.5 at 55.1%. Form: Brentford WDLDW, Liverpool LWWWW. Full preview

Fulham v Hull City, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Fulham to win at 59.3%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 36.3%. Form: Fulham DWWLD, Hull DDLDL. Full preview

Manchester City v Ipswich Town, Saturday, 17 October 2026 14:00 UTC

Manchester City to win at 70.3%, most likely score 3-0, Over 2.5 at 76.2%. Form: Man City LLWWL, Ipswich DDLWL. Full preview

Newcastle United v Aston Villa, Saturday, 17 October 2026 16:30 UTC

Newcastle United to win at 38.8%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 67%. Form: Newcastle LWLLW, Aston Villa LDWWW. Full preview

AFC Bournemouth v Sunderland, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

AFC Bournemouth to win at 41.6%, most likely score 2-1, Over 2.5 at 55.5%. Form: Bournemouth WWWWW, Sunderland LDDLW. Full preview

Brighton & Hove Albion v Crystal Palace, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Brighton & Hove Albion to win at 56.4%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 67.9%. Form: Brighton WLDWW, C Palace LLDLL. Full preview

Leeds United v Manchester United, Sunday, 18 October 2026 13:00 UTC

Leeds United to win at 36.9%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 47.9%. Form: Leeds LDDLD, Man United WLLLD. Full preview

Nottingham Forest v Arsenal, Sunday, 18 October 2026 15:30 UTC

Arsenal to win at 64.2%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 38%. Form: Nottm Forest LDLLL, Arsenal WWDWW. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Premier League probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.