Fulham vs Hull City prediction: Fulham to win 1-0 as model gives 67.9% chance
Premier League sees Fulham face Hull City at Craven Cottage. The model makes Fulham the favourite, assigning a clear 67.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Fulham 67.9%, draw 17.5%, Hull City 14.6%.
Fulham have generated 1.09 goals per game (0.77x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.41 conceded per game. Hull City average 1.35 scored (0.95x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.09 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.9 for Fulham and 1.2 for Hull City.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 63.7%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44.2%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Fulham to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 67.9% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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