Primeira Liga predictions: every match from 30 October to 2 November 2026

9 Primeira Liga fixtures previewed with win probabilities, likely scores and goals markets. 3 clear favourites, 6 games the model calls close.

9 Primeira Liga matches are scheduled between Friday, 30 October 2026 and Monday, 2 November 2026. The model makes 3 of them clear favourites at 65% or better and sees the rest as open. The headline fixture is Benfica against Alverca, and the full list with a verdict on each is below in kick-off order.

Headline fixture

Benfica78.7%vAlverca5.6%Benfica to win · 78.7%

Benfica are a strong favourite at 78.7% (draw 15.7%, Alverca 5.6%). Expected goals come out at 2.9 for Benfica and 0.7 for Alverca, with 2-0 the most likely exact score. The numbers lean to Over 2.5 goals (71%), and both teams to score is a coin flip at 50%. On Elo ratings Benfica are the clearly stronger side (350 points of edge including home advantage). Form: Benfica WWWWL, Alverca LWWWL (most recent first).

Every fixture

Casa Pia v Sporting CP, Friday, 30 October 2026 20:15 UTC

Sporting CP to win at 76.3%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 63.3%. Form: Casa Pia WLWLD, Sporting LLWWD. Full preview

Moreirense v Estrela, Saturday, 31 October 2026 15:30 UTC

Estrela to win at 42.5%, most likely score 1-2, Over 2.5 at 56.7%. Form: Moreirense WLDWL, Estrela LLLDW. Full preview

FC Porto v Estoril, Saturday, 31 October 2026 20:30 UTC

FC Porto to win at 73.5%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 64.3%. Form: FC Porto WLLWW, Estoril LLLLD. Full preview

Arouca v C.D. Nacional, Sunday, 1 November 2026 15:30 UTC

Arouca to win at 46.5%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 51.4%. Form: Arouca WWDLD, Nacional WLLLL. Full preview

Académico de Viseu v Rio Ave, Sunday, 1 November 2026 18:00 UTC

Académico de Viseu to win at 39.9%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 63.7%. Form: Académico WWWWW, Rio Ave LWLDL. Full preview

Maritimo v Santa Clara, Sunday, 1 November 2026 18:00 UTC

Santa Clara to win at 47.3%, most likely score 0-2, Over 2.5 at 47.6%. Form: Maritimo LLDLL, Santa Clara LWDWW. Full preview

Braga v FC Famalicao, Sunday, 1 November 2026 20:30 UTC

Braga to win at 55.2%, most likely score 1-0, Over 2.5 at 42.6%. Form: Braga LWLLL, FC Famalicao WLWDD. Full preview

Benfica v Alverca, Monday, 2 November 2026 20:15 UTC

Benfica to win at 78.7%, most likely score 2-0, Over 2.5 at 71%. Form: Benfica WWWWL, Alverca LWWWL. Full preview

Gil Vicente v Vitória de Guimaraes, Monday, 2 November 2026 20:15 UTC

Vitória de Guimaraes to win at 43%, most likely score 0-1, Over 2.5 at 32.5%. Form: Gil Vicente LWWDL, Vitória WLDLD. Full preview

A note on the numbers

Primeira Liga probabilities come from two seasons of results through a Dixon-Coles goals model, blended with Elo ratings and bookmaker prices. Every pick is locked at kick-off and added to the public track record.