Arouca vs C.D. Nacional prediction: Arouca to win 2-0 as model gives 46.5% chance
Primeira Liga sees Arouca face C.D. Nacional at Estádio Municipal de Arouca. The model makes Arouca the favourite, assigning a slight 46.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Arouca 46.5%, draw 28.8%, C.D. Nacional 24.7%.
Arouca have generated 1.40 goals per game (1.04x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.15 conceded per game. C.D. Nacional average 1.08 scored (0.80x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.64 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for Arouca and 0.8 for C.D. Nacional.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (49.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Arouca to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46.5% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.