AS Roma vs Cagliari prediction: AS Roma to win 2-0 as model gives 81.3% chance
Serie A sees AS Roma face Cagliari at Olimpico. The model makes AS Roma the favourite, assigning a strong 81.3% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is AS Roma 81.3%, draw 14.3%, Cagliari 4.4%.
AS Roma have generated 2.02 goals per game (1.49x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.84 conceded per game. Cagliari average 0.90 scored (0.66x average) and are a steady defence at 1.33 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.2 for AS Roma and 0.5 for Cagliari.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 36%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-0, 3-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: AS Roma to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 81.3% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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