AC Milan vs Internazionale prediction: Internazionale to win 1-2 as model gives 51.2% chance
Serie A sees AC Milan face Internazionale at San Siro. The model makes Internazionale the favourite, assigning a slight 51.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is AC Milan 23.1%, draw 25.7%, Internazionale 51.2%.
AC Milan have generated 1.66 goals per game (1.17x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.19 conceded per game. Internazionale average 2.54 scored (1.79x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.01 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for AC Milan and 1.9 for Internazionale.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 62.8%), and both teams are likely to score (63.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Internazionale to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.2% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- AC Milan's U.S. owner considering buying Cristiano Ronaldo's Al Nassr — Gerry Cardinale has revealed his American investment management firm RedBird Capital Partners is exploring the option of acquiring Al Nassr. (ESPN, 2026-10-30)
- Ruben Amorim 'not in danger' - AC Milan chief makes Top Gun vow — Ruben Amorim has been backed by AC Milan's owner who used a famous Top Gun reference. (ESPN, 2026-10-30)
- Sources: New Milan, Inter stadium gets $725M naming rights deal with Generali — AC Milan and Inter Milan have agreed a naming rights deal with Italian insurance giant Generali for the new San Siro. (ESPN, 2026-10-29)
- Sources: USMNT's Christian Pulisic set to sign new AC Milan contract — United States star Christian Pulisic is set to sign a new contract with AC Milan through to 2031, sources have told ESPN. (ESPN, 2026-10-28)
- Milan boss Ruben Amorim faces injury headache ahead of pre-derby Bologna game — A growing injury list has left AC Milan head coach Ruben Amorim facing a difficult week leading up to the weekend's derby against Inter Milan. (ESPN, 2026-10-27)
- Pulisic goal for Milan caps great day for USMNT stars in Europe — AC Milan bounced back from their humbling at Bournemouth to overcome Udinese 2-0 in Serie A on Sunday with Christian Pulisic opening the scoring for Ruben Amorim's side. (ESPN, 2026-10-26)