Bologna vs Monza prediction: Bologna to win 2-1 as model gives 51.4% chance
Serie A sees Bologna face Monza at Renato Dall'Ara. The model makes Bologna the favourite, assigning a slight 51.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Bologna 51.4%, draw 27.8%, Monza 20.8%.
Bologna have generated 1.38 goals per game (0.97x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.32 conceded per game. Monza average 1.74 scored (1.22x average) and are a leaky defence at 2.42 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2.6 for Bologna and 1.5 for Monza.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 77.2%), and both teams are likely to score (71.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 2-1, 3-1, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Bologna to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 51.4% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.