Monza vs Napoli prediction: Napoli to win 1-2 as model gives 64% chance
Serie A sees Monza face Napoli at U-Power Stadium. The model makes Napoli the favourite, assigning a clear 64% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Monza 12.4%, draw 23.6%, Napoli 64%.
Monza have generated 1.84 goals per game (1.36x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.19 conceded per game. Napoli average 1.59 scored (1.17x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.09 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Monza and 2.3 for Napoli.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 75.6%), and both teams are likely to score (73.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-2, 1-1, 2-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Napoli to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 64% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Napoli's Scott McTominay bags brace in derby day thriller against Roma — Napoli's stuttering start in Serie A continued as Roma twice fought back to secure a 3-3 draw in a dramatic Derby del Sole. (ESPN, 2026-10-24)
- Scott McTominay scores timely brace as Napoli overcome Bodo/Glimt — Scott McTominay scored twice for Napoli in a thrilling 4-3 home Champions League win against Bodo/Glimt to help ease the pressure on head coach Max Allegri. (ESPN, 2026-10-20)
- Scott McTominay back in Napoli training after heart procedure — Scott McTominay has returned to training with Napoli for the first time since undergoing a heart procedure last month. (ESPN, 2026-10-07)
- Kevin De Bruyne nets 200th career goal to lead Belgium past Turkiye — Veteran stars took center stage in the Nations League on Friday with Robert Lewandowski and Kevin de Bruyne leading Poland and Belgium to victories thanks to multi-goal performances. (ESPN, 2026-10-02)
- Napoli president wants ultras out of any new stadium, warns Allegri — With two Serie A trophies in the last four years and five other domestic cups, Napoli president Aurelio De Laurentiis is proud of what he has accomplished since rescuing the club from bankruptcy and starting in Serie C more than two decades ago. (ESPN, 2026-09-23)
- Mikel Arteta: Martin Ødegaard 'decisive' in Champions League win at Napoli — Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta hailed the "decisive" contribution of Martin Ødegaard after the captain fired his side to a 1-0 win in their Champions League opener at Napoli. (ESPN, 2026-09-09)