Napoli vs AS Roma prediction: AS Roma to win 0-1 as model gives 46% chance
Serie A sees Napoli face AS Roma at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. The model makes AS Roma the favourite, assigning a slight 46% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Napoli 26.7%, draw 27.3%, AS Roma 46%.
Napoli have generated 1.48 goals per game (1.11x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 0.94 conceded per game. AS Roma average 1.94 scored (1.45x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.68 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Napoli and 1.2 for AS Roma.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 66.1%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 41.5%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: AS Roma to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 46% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
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- Napoli president wants ultras out of any new stadium, warns Allegri — With two Serie A trophies in the last four years and five other domestic cups, Napoli president Aurelio De Laurentiis is proud of what he has accomplished since rescuing the club from bankruptcy and starting in Serie C more than two decades ago. (ESPN, 2026-09-23)
- Weekend predictions: Madrid derby heats up LaLiga, Brighton to stun Arsenal? — It's another big weekend of matches in Europe which will include heated derbies, top-of-the-table matchups and other rivalries. (ESPN, 2026-09-17)