Bologna vs Internazionale prediction: Internazionale to win 1-2 as model gives 71.7% chance
Serie A sees Bologna face Internazionale at Renato Dall'Ara. The model makes Internazionale the favourite, assigning a clear 71.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Bologna 7.2%, draw 21.1%, Internazionale 71.7%.
Bologna have generated 1.12 goals per game (0.86x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.23 conceded per game. Internazionale average 2.59 scored (1.99x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.10 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Bologna and 2.2 for Internazionale.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 63.4%), and both teams are likely to score (59.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 0-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Internazionale to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 71.7% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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