Cagliari vs Bologna prediction: Bologna to win 0-1 as model gives 48.8% chance
Serie A sees Cagliari face Bologna at Unipol Domus. The model makes Bologna the favourite, assigning a slight 48.8% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Cagliari 21.4%, draw 29.8%, Bologna 48.8%.
Cagliari have generated 0.97 goals per game (0.72x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.28 conceded per game. Bologna average 1.11 scored (0.83x average) and are a steady defence at 1.37 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.1 for Cagliari and 1 for Bologna.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 66%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 42.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Bologna to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 48.8% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.