Frosinone vs Sassuolo prediction: Frosinone to win 2-1 as model gives 38.2% chance
Serie A sees Frosinone face Sassuolo at Stadio Benito Stirpe. The model makes Frosinone the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Frosinone 38.2%, draw 29.3%, Sassuolo 32.5%.
Frosinone have generated 1.45 goals per game (1.12x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.23 conceded per game. Sassuolo average 1.38 scored (1.07x average) and are a steady defence at 1.45 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.8 for Frosinone and 1.2 for Sassuolo.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 57.7%), and both teams are likely to score (59.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Frosinone to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.2% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Socceroos, Sassuolo star Volpato fined for positive cocaine test — Cristian Volpato's immediate availability for the Socceroos rests in the hands of Football Australia after NSW Police confirmed the World Cup star had tested positive for cocaine on a secondary test. (ESPN, 2026-09-09)