Sassuolo vs Fiorentina prediction: Fiorentina to win 1-2 as model gives 43.6% chance
Serie A sees Sassuolo face Fiorentina at Mapei Stadium. The model makes Fiorentina the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Sassuolo 26.5%, draw 29.9%, Fiorentina 43.6%.
Sassuolo have generated 1.37 goals per game (0.97x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.99 conceded per game. Fiorentina average 1.18 scored (0.83x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.74 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for Sassuolo and 1.5 for Fiorentina.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 65.5%), and both teams are likely to score (66.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Fiorentina to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.6% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Mastantuono beats Messi record with Fiorentina hat trick — On-loan Real Madrid winger Franco Mastantuono eclipsed Lionel Messi as the youngest Argentine player to score a hat trick in Europe's top five leagues. (ESPN, 2026-09-11)
- Socceroos, Sassuolo star Volpato fined for positive cocaine test — Cristian Volpato's immediate availability for the Socceroos rests in the hands of Football Australia after NSW Police confirmed the World Cup star had tested positive for cocaine on a secondary test. (ESPN, 2026-09-09)
- Fiorentina sack manager Fabio Grosso after 0-3 start — Fabio Grosso at Fiorentina became the first head coach fired in Europe's top leagues this season after an 0-3 start in Serie A for the Tuscan club -- who are celebrating their 100th anniversary. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)