Parma vs Udinese prediction: Udinese to win 0-1 as model gives 49.9% chance
Serie A sees Parma face Udinese at Ennio Tardini. The model makes Udinese the favourite, assigning a slight 49.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Parma 21.6%, draw 28.5%, Udinese 49.9%.
Parma have generated 0.71 goals per game (0.53x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.56 conceded per game. Udinese average 1.20 scored (0.89x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.65 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for Parma and 1.2 for Udinese.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 61.6%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (46%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Udinese to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 49.9% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Parma part ways with ex-Arsenal assistant Carlos Cuesta — Parma parted ways with coach Carlos Cuesta on Sunday after winning only one of their opening five Serie A matches. (ESPN, 2026-09-27)
- Udinese sign former Real Madrid defender David Alaba — Former Real Madrid defender David Alaba officially signed for Serie A side Udinese on Thursday. (ESPN, 2026-09-24)
- Socceroos transfer tracker: Where Australia's stars will play in 2026-27 — Transfer deadlines are hitting across the globe and, with it, bringing to an end a window that has seen a remarkable surge in interest in players who represented the Socceroos at the FIFA World Cup. (ESPN, 2026-09-02)