Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction: Fiorentina narrow favourites at 43.6%
Serie A sees Fiorentina face Atalanta at Stadio Artemio Franchi. The model makes Fiorentina the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Fiorentina 43.6%, draw 24.3%, Atalanta 32.2%.
Fiorentina have generated 1.12 goals per game (0.80x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.72 conceded per game. Atalanta average 1.60 scored (1.14x average) and are a steady defence at 1.46 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Fiorentina and 1.8 for Atalanta.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 59.3%), and both teams are likely to score (61.7%).
Verdict: Fiorentina to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.6% confidence. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Soccer's best 2025-26 kits: The most stylish jerseys you probably missed — While the world's top clubs release their new kits on a wave of hype, there are many more who release absolutely banging jerseys that deserve to be seen. (ESPN, 2026-09-29)
- Mastantuono beats Messi record with Fiorentina hat trick — On-loan Real Madrid winger Franco Mastantuono eclipsed Lionel Messi as the youngest Argentine player to score a hat trick in Europe's top five leagues. (ESPN, 2026-09-11)
- Fiorentina sack manager Fabio Grosso after 0-3 start — Fabio Grosso at Fiorentina became the first head coach fired in Europe's top leagues this season after an 0-3 start in Serie A for the Tuscan club -- who are celebrating their 100th anniversary. (ESPN, 2026-09-07)
- Honest Ahanor joins Crystal Palace on loan, will join Chelsea in 2027 — Chelsea have agreed a deal to sign Atalanta defender Honest Ahanor, with the player set to move to Stamford Bridge in 2027. (ESPN, 2026-09-01)