Atalanta vs Parma prediction: Atalanta to win 2-0 as model gives 60.5% chance
Serie A sees Atalanta face Parma at New Balance Arena. The model makes Atalanta the favourite, assigning a clear 60.5% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Atalanta 60.5%, draw 23.9%, Parma 15.6%.
Atalanta have generated 1.63 goals per game (1.15x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.50 conceded per game. Parma average 0.66 scored (0.47x average) and are a steady defence at 1.46 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.9 for Atalanta and 0.6 for Parma.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 40.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-0, with 2-0, 1-0, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Atalanta to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 60.5% confidence. A 2-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Soccer's best 2025-26 kits: The most stylish jerseys you probably missed — While the world's top clubs release their new kits on a wave of hype, there are many more who release absolutely banging jerseys that deserve to be seen. (ESPN, 2026-09-29)
- Parma part ways with ex-Arsenal assistant Carlos Cuesta — Parma parted ways with coach Carlos Cuesta on Sunday after winning only one of their opening five Serie A matches. (ESPN, 2026-09-27)
- Socceroos transfer tracker: Where Australia's stars will play in 2026-27 — Transfer deadlines are hitting across the globe and, with it, bringing to an end a window that has seen a remarkable surge in interest in players who represented the Socceroos at the FIFA World Cup. (ESPN, 2026-09-02)
- Honest Ahanor joins Crystal Palace on loan, will join Chelsea in 2027 — Chelsea have agreed a deal to sign Atalanta defender Honest Ahanor, with the player set to move to Stamford Bridge in 2027. (ESPN, 2026-09-01)