Udinese vs AS Roma prediction: AS Roma to win 0-2 as model gives 66% chance
Serie A sees Udinese face AS Roma at Stadio Friuli. The model makes AS Roma the favourite, assigning a clear 66% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Udinese 12.8%, draw 21.2%, AS Roma 66%.
Udinese have generated 1.04 goals per game (0.73x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.56 conceded per game. AS Roma average 2.16 scored (1.52x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.92 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Udinese and 2.1 for AS Roma.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 55.2%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (47.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 0-2, 0-1, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: AS Roma to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 66% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Napoli's Scott McTominay bags brace in derby day thriller against Roma — Napoli's stuttering start in Serie A continued as Roma twice fought back to secure a 3-3 draw in a dramatic Derby del Sole. (ESPN, 2026-10-28)
- France's Koné 'shocked' by coach Zidane's ability in training — France midfielder Manu Koné had to pinch himself when new coach Zinedine Zidane laced up his boots to take part in training. (ESPN, 2026-10-01)
- Udinese sign former Real Madrid defender David Alaba — Former Real Madrid defender David Alaba officially signed for Serie A side Udinese on Thursday. (ESPN, 2026-09-24)
- Weekend predictions: Madrid derby heats up LaLiga, Brighton to stun Arsenal? — It's another big weekend of matches in Europe which will include heated derbies, top-of-the-table matchups and other rivalries. (ESPN, 2026-09-17)
- Inter Milan, Roma both win to stay perfect atop Serie A — Defending champions Inter Milan produced another rousing comeback to beat Udinese 5-3 at San Siro and continue their perfect start to the new Serie A campaign. (ESPN, 2026-09-14)