AC Milan vs Bologna prediction: AC Milan to win 1-0 as model gives 69.1% chance
Serie A sees AC Milan face Bologna at San Siro. The model makes AC Milan the favourite, assigning a clear 69.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is AC Milan 69.1%, draw 19.6%, Bologna 11.3%.
AC Milan have generated 1.61 goals per game (1.19x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.05 conceded per game. Bologna average 1.18 scored (0.87x average) and are a steady defence at 1.27 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for AC Milan and 0.8 for Bologna.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (47.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: AC Milan to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 69.1% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Musah is back in Milan, back in midfield and back in contention for the USMNT — Last year, on loan at Atalanta, Yunus Musah wasn't playing much, certainly not in his preferred midfield role. Now back at Milan, that's all changed. (ESPN, 2026-10-23)
- Bournemouth 3-0 AC Milan: Cherries storm to stunning Europa League win with Mike Maignan sent off - as it happened — Bournemouth stormed to a stunning 3-0 victory over AC Milan on Thursday to make it three wins from three in the Europa League. (ESPN, 2026-10-22)
- Milan's Cissè becomes Italy's youngest European hat-trick scorer — Alphadjo Cissè made European history for Italy with his hat trick in AC Milan 's 4-0 thrashing of RB Salzburg in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday. (ESPN, 2026-10-15)
- Ruben Amorim says Man United struggles prepared him for AC Milan challenge — Ruben Amorim believes the ups and downs of his management career have prepared him well for the task of leading AC Milan. (ESPN, 2026-10-10)
- USMNT's Yunus Musah credits Milan coach Amorim for resurgence — United States midfielder Yunus Musah has credited AC Milan manager Ruben Amorim for his uptick in form with the Rossoneri, which has led to a recall to the national team. (ESPN, 2026-10-05)
- Christian Pulisic wants AC Milan stay amid ongoing contract talks — USMNT's Christian Pulisic says it was a "big relief" to get his first club goal of 2026 and that he wants to stay at AC Milan amid ongoing contract talks. (ESPN, 2026-10-01)