Paris FC vs AS Monaco prediction: Paris FC to win 2-1 as model gives 37.9% chance
Ligue 1 sees Paris FC face AS Monaco at Stade Jean Bouin. The model makes Paris FC the favourite, assigning a narrow 37.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Paris FC 37.9%, draw 27.7%, AS Monaco 34.4%.
Paris FC have generated 1.57 goals per game (1.08x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.26 conceded per game. AS Monaco average 1.57 scored (1.08x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.27 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Paris FC and 1.2 for AS Monaco.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both teams are likely to score (56.7%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Paris FC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 37.9% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Folarin Balogun reopens door to Premier League despite failed Everton move — United States striker Folarin Balogun has said that he would still be keen to play in the Premier League, even though his transfer deadline day move to Everton collapsed in dramatic fashion. (ESPN, 2026-10-05)
- UWCL reaction: Chelsea held to goalless draw against OL Lyonnes, Arsenal suffer setback - as it happened — Arsenal and Chelsea faced French opposition in the Women's Champions League on Tuesday, and both came away with draws. (ESPN, 2026-09-30)
- Pochettino shares 'regret' over Balogun controversy, impact on USMNT — USMNT coach Mauricio Pochettino said he regrets not being more involved in the process of appealing Folarin Balogun's suspension at this summer's World Cup, adding that the incident changed the energy around his squad. (ESPN, 2026-09-25)
- Kylian Mbappé on past Liverpool transfer talks: 'Mum went to Anfield and fell in love' — Kylian Mbappé has described how his mother "fell in love" with Anfield and was keen for him to sign for Liverpool before he decided to join PSG. (ESPN, 2026-09-22)
- Liam Rosenior taunts Strasbourg fans, causes melee: 'They disrespected my family' — Liam Rosenior has caused controversy after he went over to celebrate Paris FC's 2-1 home win over his former club Strasbourg in front of the travelling fans, leading to a physical confrontation between players and staff from both teams. (ESPN, 2026-09-19)
- USMNT's Balogun makes season debut for Monaco after failed transfer — United States striker Folarin Balogun made his first appearance of the season for AS Monaco in its 2-1 win over Lens on Friday. (ESPN, 2026-09-18)