Le Havre AC vs Paris Saint-Germain prediction: Paris Saint-Germain to win 0-2 as model gives 79.2% chance
Ligue 1 sees Le Havre AC face Paris Saint-Germain at Stade Océane. The model makes Paris Saint-Germain the favourite, assigning a strong 79.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Le Havre AC 4.1%, draw 16.7%, Paris Saint-Germain 79.2%.
Le Havre AC have generated 1.06 goals per game (0.73x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.67 conceded per game. Paris Saint-Germain average 2.12 scored (1.45x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.97 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 0.8 for Le Havre AC and 2.2 for Paris Saint-Germain.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 57.1%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (49.4%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-2, with 0-2, 0-1, 1-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Paris Saint-Germain to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 79.2% confidence. A 0-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- PSG's Luis Enrique: Vitinha deserved higher Ballon d'Or ranking — Paris Saint-Germain boss Luis Enrique does not believe star midfielder Vitinha got the recognition he deserved in the Ballon d'Or rankings. (ESPN, 2026-10-29)
- PSG's Khvicha Kvaratskhelia undergoes successful knee surgery — Khvicha Kvaratskhelia has undergone successful surgery on his serious knee injury, Paris Saint-Germain confirmed. (ESPN, 2026-10-27)
- Transfer rumors, news: PSG eye Man United wonderkid Gabriel — Paris Saint-Germain are reportedly looking to sign young talent JJ Gabriel from Manchester United. Transfer Talk has the latest. (ESPN, 2026-10-26)
- Luis Enrique: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will be back stronger for PSG after ACL injury — Paris Saint-Germain boss Luis Enrique says winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will come back stronger after he suffered an anterior cruciate ligament injury. (ESPN, 2026-10-25)
- PSG-Lyon match moved to Monday amid Paris protests, NFL game — Paris Saint-Germain's clash with Lyon in Ligue 1 has been moved from Sunday to Monday evening at the request of Paris police. (ESPN, 2026-10-23)
- PSG star Khvicha Kvaratskhelia ruptures ACL; Dembélé, Marquinhos out 'weeks' — Khvicha Kvaratskhelia ruptured his anterior cruciate ligament injury during Paris Saint-Germain's Champions League victory against Barcelona. (ESPN, 2026-10-21)