AS Monaco vs Lille prediction: AS Monaco to win 1-0 as model gives 45.4% chance
Ligue 1 sees AS Monaco face Lille at Stade Louis II. The model makes AS Monaco the favourite, assigning a slight 45.4% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is AS Monaco 45.4%, draw 25.4%, Lille 29.2%.
AS Monaco have generated 1.62 goals per game (1.10x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.29 conceded per game. Lille average 1.37 scored (0.93x average) and are a miserly defence at 0.84 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for AS Monaco and 1.1 for Lille.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 64.8%), and a clean sheet for one side is on the cards (both teams to score just 44%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: AS Monaco to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 45.4% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Folarin Balogun reopens door to Premier League despite failed Everton move — United States striker Folarin Balogun has said that he would still be keen to play in the Premier League, even though his transfer deadline day move to Everton collapsed in dramatic fashion. (ESPN, 2026-10-05)
- Pochettino shares 'regret' over Balogun controversy, impact on USMNT — USMNT coach Mauricio Pochettino said he regrets not being more involved in the process of appealing Folarin Balogun's suspension at this summer's World Cup, adding that the incident changed the energy around his squad. (ESPN, 2026-09-25)
- Kylian Mbappé on past Liverpool transfer talks: 'Mum went to Anfield and fell in love' — Kylian Mbappé has described how his mother "fell in love" with Anfield and was keen for him to sign for Liverpool before he decided to join PSG. (ESPN, 2026-09-22)
- USMNT's Balogun makes season debut for Monaco after failed transfer — United States striker Folarin Balogun made his first appearance of the season for AS Monaco in its 2-1 win over Lens on Friday. (ESPN, 2026-09-18)
- Monaco's Lamine Camara says he has 'turned the page' after failed Chelsea move — Monaco midfielder Lamine Camara said he has moved on from his collapsed move to Chelsea and is fully focused on playing well for the Ligue 1 leaders. (ESPN, 2026-09-11)
- Troy Parrott scores another winner for Real Betis on Champions League debut — Yet again, Ireland forward Troy Parrott scored a decisive goal in green and white on the big stage. (ESPN, 2026-09-08)