Le Mans vs Toulouse prediction: Toulouse to win 1-2 as model gives 47.2% chance
Ligue 1 sees Le Mans face Toulouse at Stade Marie-Marvingt. The model makes Toulouse the favourite, assigning a slight 47.2% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Le Mans 22.7%, draw 30.1%, Toulouse 47.2%.
Le Mans have generated 1.64 goals per game (1.14x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.02 conceded per game. Toulouse average 1.43 scored (1.00x average) and are a steady defence at 1.60 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 2 for Le Mans and 1.8 for Toulouse.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 74.1%), and both teams are likely to score (73.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Toulouse to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 47.2% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
Team news
- Source: USMNT's Mark McKenzie set to rejoin Philadelphia Union — The Philadelphia Union is finalizing the transfer of Toulouse and United States international defender Mark McKenzie, a source confirmed to ESPN. (ESPN, 2026-08-18)