Le Havre AC vs AJ Auxerre prediction: Le Havre AC to win 1-0 as model gives 43.1% chance
Ligue 1 sees Le Havre AC face AJ Auxerre at Stade Océane. The model makes Le Havre AC the favourite, assigning a narrow 43.1% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Le Havre AC 43.1%, draw 26.6%, AJ Auxerre 30.3%.
Le Havre AC have generated 0.89 goals per game (0.62x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.33 conceded per game. AJ Auxerre average 1.26 scored (0.88x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.81 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.3 for Le Havre AC and 1.1 for AJ Auxerre.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 59.4%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.1%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Le Havre AC to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 43.1% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.