Motherwell vs St Mirren prediction: Motherwell to win 1-0 as model gives 53% chance
Scottish Premiership sees Motherwell face St Mirren at Fir Park. The model makes Motherwell the favourite, assigning a slight 53% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Motherwell 53%, draw 25.8%, St Mirren 21.2%.
Motherwell have generated 1.31 goals per game (0.90x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.56 conceded per game. St Mirren average 0.96 scored (0.66x average) and are a leaky defence at 1.67 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.7 for Motherwell and 0.9 for St Mirren.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a balanced total around the 2.5 line, and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 1-0, 2-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Motherwell to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 53% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Scottish Premiership