Kilmarnock vs St Johnstone prediction: Kilmarnock to win 2-1 as model gives 41.9% chance
Scottish Premiership sees Kilmarnock face St Johnstone at The BBSP Stadium. The model makes Kilmarnock the favourite, assigning a narrow 41.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Kilmarnock 41.9%, draw 27%, St Johnstone 31.1%.
Kilmarnock have generated 1.23 goals per game (0.85x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 2.03 conceded per game. St Johnstone average 1.12 scored (0.77x average) and are a steady defence at 1.57 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Kilmarnock and 1.4 for St Johnstone.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 55.4%), and both teams are likely to score (59.9%). The most probable exact scoreline is 2-1, with 1-1, 2-1, 1-2 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Kilmarnock to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 41.9% confidence. A 2-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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