St Mirren vs Hibernian result: 1-1 as Hibernian were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: St Mirren 1-1 Hibernian. We tipped Hibernian at 52.6% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Scottish Premiership sees St Mirren face Hibernian at The SMISA Stadium. The model makes Hibernian the favourite, assigning a slight 52.6% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is St Mirren 20.2%, draw 27.2%, Hibernian 52.6%.
St Mirren have generated 0.96 goals per game (0.66x the league average) and are a leaky defence at 1.72 conceded per game. Hibernian average 1.20 scored (0.83x average) and are a steady defence at 1.40 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1 for St Mirren and 1.3 for Hibernian.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 58.9%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (48.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 0-1, with 1-1, 0-0, 0-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Hibernian to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 52.6% confidence. A 0-1 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Scottish Premiership