St Johnstone vs Motherwell result: 2-2 as St Johnstone were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: St Johnstone 2-2 Motherwell. We tipped St Johnstone at 40.9% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Scottish Premiership sees St Johnstone face Motherwell at McDiarmid Park. The model makes St Johnstone the favourite, assigning a narrow 40.9% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is St Johnstone 40.9%, draw 26.1%, Motherwell 33.1%.
St Johnstone have generated 1.01 goals per game (0.70x the league average) and are a steady defence at 1.52 conceded per game. Motherwell average 1.26 scored (0.88x average) and are a steady defence at 1.53 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.2 for St Johnstone and 1.2 for Motherwell.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to a tighter, lower-scoring game (Under 2.5 at 57.1%), and both-teams-to-score is close to a coin flip (50.3%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, with 1-1, 0-0, 1-0 the leading candidates.
Verdict: St Johnstone to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 40.9% confidence. A 1-0 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Scottish Premiership