Heart of Midlothian vs Rangers result: 2-2 as Rangers were tipped
Prediction wrong. Final score: Heart of Midlothian 2-2 Rangers. We tipped Rangers at 38.7% before kick-off, so the prediction was wrong.
Pre-match preview (as published)
Scottish Premiership sees Heart of Midlothian face Rangers at Tynecastle Park. The model makes Rangers the favourite, assigning a narrow 38.7% probability of victory. For reference, the full split is Heart of Midlothian 34.7%, draw 26.6%, Rangers 38.7%.
Heart of Midlothian have generated 1.95 goals per game (1.35x the league average) and are a miserly defence at 1.29 conceded per game. Rangers average 2.05 scored (1.42x average) and are a miserly defence at 1.02 conceded per game. Feeding those attack and defence strengths through a Poisson model, expected goals come out at 1.5 for Heart of Midlothian and 1.7 for Rangers.
On the goals markets, the numbers point to an open, higher-scoring game (Over 2.5 at 61.9%), and both teams are likely to score (64.8%). The most probable exact scoreline is 1-2, with 1-1, 1-2, 2-1 the leading candidates.
Verdict: Rangers to come out on top is the model's recommended pick at 38.7% confidence. A 1-2 scoreline is our single most likely result. As always, these are statistical estimates, not certainties.
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Head-to-head & form · More predictions · Scottish Premiership